TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$500
“If we hit all-time highs, which we could, we could go to 500 easily uh in that rally.”@ 15:18 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishQ4 deliveries are already expected weak (Kalshi at 364,000), so no downside surprise risk, while the Fed lowering rates sets up a year-end rally potentially reaching 500. Jo plans to roll leaps back into stock starting at 450-460, expecting a Q1 2026 air pocket before April-May robotaxi scaling catalysts.
Key arguments
- Fed rate cut near certain (market now at 88% vs Jo's longstanding 95%)
- Q4 delivery expectations already low at 364k, no downside surprise risk
- Tactical target 500 on rally, possibly higher
- Q1 2026 air pocket likely with no scheduled major catalysts
- April-May 2026 robotaxi scaling to 1,800 FTEs and Optimus demo are next big catalysts
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 2027-2028 AI unemployment crisis could eventually hit Tesla despite Tesla being a beneficiary
- Tesla just corrected from 475 to 385 in November
The call
- Date said
- Nov 30, 2025
- Timeframe
- December year-end rally into January
- Deadline
- Jan 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $430.14
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $430.41
- Return
- +0.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $430.41.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $430.41.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Jo says 'we could go to 500 easily' but tempers with 'could'. It is his tactical target on Fed rally.