NVDABearunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“By I think by 2028 it's guaranteed to happen and I think then Nvidia will drop when the market realizes there will be it will made be made illegal to do training runs.”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker views Nvidia as fundamentally undervalued and poised to grow near-term, but believes it carries more downside risk than Tesla or SpaceX because its core training-compute business could be threatened if large AI training runs are outlawed. He expects a possible near-term move higher before a later, more serious hiccup tied to this regulatory risk.
Key arguments
- Nvidia is undervalued and 'posed to grow dramatically' in the near term
- Its central advantage is training/terrestrial buildout, which is at risk if massive training runs become illegal
- He expects the market to increasingly price in this risk over the next 6+ months, with a bigger reckoning by 2028
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Nvidia will probably lobby against restrictions and eventually pivot toward inference compute
- He is 'not too concerned about Nvidia strategically' as a company even if the stock has a hiccup
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Speaker acknowledges this is speculative analysis of rapidly evolving political and corporate dynamics
- No specific price targets or directional calls provided for any assets
- Discussion centers on macro AI safety concerns rather than fundamental company analysis
- Speaker presents personal interpretation of tech leaders' motivations without financial recommendations
The call
- Date said
- Sep 13, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2028
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Price at prediction
- $218.29
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Certainty language ('guaranteed') and a specific year signal high conviction, though the underlying thesis (training runs being outlawed) is speculative.
Source
How ACCELERATION Impacts Tesla, SpaceX And AI Stocks
Said on Sep 13, 2026Open on YouTube ↗