MSFTBullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“In 2029, unless Starship messes up, which I don't think it will, we will have the ability on all technological trajectories to do multi-gigawatt data centers in space, orbital data centers.”@ 13:38 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishMicrosoft is participating in orbital data center initiatives and will likely be able to use Starship to create their own orbital data centers, positioning them for the space economy opportunity.
Key arguments
- Microsoft joining orbital data center discussions
- Will likely have access to Starship for space deployment
- Positioned to benefit from space-based infrastructure
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Timeline predictions (2027-2028 energy crisis, 2030s Dyson swarms) are speculative
- Technical feasibility of orbital data centers at scale remains unproven
- Cooling challenges in space are significant engineering obstacles
- Dependent on continued AGI buildout at current pace
- Long-term nature of opportunity (decade+ timeline)
The call
- Date said
- Mar 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2029
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2029
- Price at prediction
- $383
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker expresses strong conviction with 'I don't think it will' regarding Starship failure and provides specific technological timeline