TSLABullhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$415
“I said I think we are going to end it between 410 and 420. If we end up at 415 I will have nailed the landing because I still have some short puts, significant short puts at 4:15.”@ 1:04 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is building a transformative future with robotaxi coming online and Optimus robots, with April being a key inflection point. The speaker believes Tesla is completely undervalued despite conventional metrics suggesting overvaluation.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi technology coming online with April as inflection point
- Optimus robot development
- Building transformative future technology
- Currently undervalued on fundamental basis
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- People don't understand Tesla's future and think it's overvalued on conventional metrics
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Speaker acknowledges closing positions for internal risk control despite believing recovery was likely
- Performance claims are based on speaker's specific portfolio strategy and may not be replicable
- Market predictions (S&P 390-420 range) are retrospective commentary on recent price action
- Risk management rules sometimes reduce alpha generation, creating trade-offs
The call
- Date said
- Feb 7, 2026
- Timeframe
- end of this trading day
- Price at prediction
- $411.11
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $417.32
- Return
- +1.5%
- Notes
- Target ≥$415 reached on 2026-02-09. Price: $417.32. Return: +1.5%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$415 reached on 2026-02-09. Price: $417.32. Return: +1.5%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker made specific prediction two days ago and is confident about nailing the exact landing at 415