SPYBullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$800
“My belief is that we should actually be like 20 or 30% higher that we should be breaking through 800 by the end of the year.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishKevin argues that fear around rate hikes, oil prices, and a potential AI slowdown is already priced in, calling this 'peak fear.' He believes the S&P 500 is being held back despite strong capex, financing, and earnings, and should break through 800 by year end.
Key arguments
- Three to four rate hikes are already priced in, so anything less is bullish
- Oil price spike and war fears from the Saudi pipeline situation are already priced in
- The 10-year yield near 5% has historically marked a peak
- Coordinated AI spending slowdown props up reported profitability and extends the bubble rather than popping it
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- It is a bubble and will eventually pop
- We could be at war for the entire Trump term, which is bearish
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges this is contrarian to popular online opinion
- Invites viewers to challenge his thesis in comments
- Presents multiple interpretations (marketing angle, regulatory angle) before settling on his own
- Describes some arguments as 'jaded' perspectives rather than his actual belief
The call
- Date said
- Sep 13, 2026
- Timeframe
- by the end of the year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $764.29
- Current price (live)
- $773.38$26.62 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price target and timeframe add confidence, but hedge words like 'should' and 'I think' pull it down from high.
Source
they're all wrong.
Said on Sep 13, 2026Open on YouTube ↗