LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$8.77
“877 would be the following support. So definitely things could get a lot scarier before they get better.”
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid's intraday dip below $10 triggered panic over the Bloomberg article about international funding — which the speaker believes is mischaracterized, simply meaning Lucid wants more institutional backers alongside PIF. Short interest is nearly at all-time highs, 74% of options are bearish, and a close in single digits risks a severe psychological breakdown. The speaker is personally not buying Lucid at this level.
Key arguments
- First-ever sub-$10 trade — psychologically significant; single-digit close could escalate the downtrend
- Bloomberg article about seeking PIF alternatives is misleading — Lucid just wants more institutional diversity
- 74% of options activity is bearish, signaling big money expects further downside
- Short interest at 36.09% — 0.006% from all-time high; DTC 5.81 days (overextended)
- Institutions not buying; dark pool dominated by sells
- Stock down 28.9% since December 5; down 59.4% from October peak
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic RSI at 36 — oversold, good news could spark algorithmic buying
- Manufacturing data positive for broader market
The call
- Date said
- Jan 16, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $10.12
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $8.77
- Return
- +13.3%
- Notes
- Target ≤$8.77 reached on 2026-04-09. Price: $8.77. Return: +13.3%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$8.77 reached on 2026-04-09. Price: $8.77. Return: +13.3%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.