TSLANeutralmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$240
“I think it's going to hover around 230 240”@ 5:25 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe Robotaxi Day delay is likely bullish because Elon realized an August prototype reveal would fall short and is now preparing a real operational rollout plan with remote control, geo-fencing, and pilot region subscriptions for October, smoothing the stock's upward trajectory.
Key arguments
- Delay likely reflects Elon's pivot to focus on operational rollout details.
- Tesla has superior FSD core technology with end-to-end neural nets.
- Delay smooths out the stock by preventing August boom-bust.
- October reveal could include pre-subscription app, remote control plans, geo-fenced pilot cities.
- Earnings will be good but Robotaxi anticipation already priced in.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Alternative explanation: they simply screwed up and are behind schedule.
- Tesla appeared operationally unprepared to roll out FSD at shareholder day.
- Author's prior view was FSD commercial rollout pushed to 2027+.
The call
- Date said
- Jul 11, 2024
- Timeframe
- near-term hover range
- Price at prediction
- $241.03
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $239.20
- Return
- -0.8%
- Notes
- Floor $240 breached on 2024-07-19. Price: $239.20 (-0.8% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Floor $240 breached on 2024-07-19. Price: $239.20 (-0.8% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as what he thinks will happen after the delay news.