TSLABullhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$300
“if you get lucky the core business end of the year can make Tesla look good enough to go to 300 over time in 2025”@ 7:57 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLong-term Tesla will reach $5,000 by 2030 with Optimus and FSD, but short-term the negative Wall Street sentiment means soft catalysts are discounted and the stock could stagnate for years without hard catalysts; near-term risk makes time-sensitive positions unwise.
Key arguments
- FSD is multi-trillion opportunity, Optimus is multi-tens-of-trillions opportunity.
- Wall Street analysts need hard revenue catalysts, not soft technology progress.
- Core automotive business looks weak with negative growth this year.
- Robotaxi hardware unveil on 8/8 is soft catalyst, won't move stock.
- Hard catalysts needed: app enrollment, pilot cities, remote driver department.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If Tesla delivers hard catalysts the stock could explode.
- Elon's comp package approval should have caused a 10-20% rally but didn't.
- Optimus could overtake FSD as a hard catalyst earlier than expected.
The call
- Date said
- Jun 24, 2024
- Timeframe
- end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $182.58
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $321.22
- Return
- +75.9%
- Notes
- Target ≥$300 reached on 2024-11-08. Price: $321.22. Return: +75.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$300 reached on 2024-11-08. Price: $321.22. Return: +75.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on core business margin recovery.