LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$13
“From a bull standpoint, this is where again they are anticipating that it'll be at roughly $13 plus by the end of the week.”@ 5:53 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid delivered 18,378 produced and 15,841 delivered vehicles for full-year 2025, up 104% and 55% respectively — the first time Lucid hit a target it set without mid-year reduction. Q4 alone saw 8,412 produced (up 116% quarter-over-quarter). The speaker sees this as deserving applause and, combined with technicals, expects a bullish week with potential to reach $13. The main concern is ~3,000 units of excess inventory.
Key arguments
- 18,378 produced in 2025 — up 104% YoY; first genuine target hit without mid-year amendment
- Q4 production of 8,412 up 116% quarter-over-quarter
- 15,841 delivered — up 55% YoY; ~3,000 units of excess inventory remains
- Short interest at all-time high 35.72% — squeeze potential if earnings surprise
- 77% of options activity is bullish; bull consensus targeting ~$13
- Key technical: needs to clear 100-day MA at $11.56 to test 200-day at $12.26
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Excess inventory (~3,000 units) will be scrutinized by Wall Street
- Delivery still lagging production — market may spin as demand concern
The call
- Date said
- Jan 5, 2026
- Deadline
- Jan 9, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $11.69
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $11.33
- Return
- -3.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $13. Price: $11.33.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $13. Price: $11.33.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.