TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$2,000
“it has to then continue up uh by 2026 probably hit the arc price Target by 2026 of 2000 Maybe by 2027 it's pretty safe to say it has to hit that”@ 16:03 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is deeply undervalued at $180 with a strong floor at $160. Short-term target is $255-280 around the August 8 robotaxi event, $400 within 12-18 months as it retakes 2021 highs, and $2,000 by 2026-2027. The stock trades at 6x P/S while comparable AI companies (Nvidia 35x, Microsoft 12.5x) trade much higher.
Key arguments
- Tesla's price-to-sales ratio of 6.06 is extremely low vs Nvidia 35, Microsoft 12.5, Meta 7.85
- Comparables (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia) have all exceeded 2021 highs while Tesla at $180 is far below $400 high
- Bullish catalysts: June 13 shareholder meeting, Q2 earnings July 17, August 8 robotaxi unveil
- Analyst targets: Dan Ives ~$300 (may increase to $315-325), ARK Invest $2,000, Ron Baron has $4B position expecting 10x
- Macro environment stabilizing: Fed stable, recession risk low, election outcome likely Trump (de-escalation)
- Taiwan/China tail risk acknowledged but diplomatically managed
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- China Taiwan invasion would be a tail risk disaster for all AI stocks due to TSMC
- If Biden stays/wins, geopolitical risk increases
- Q1 earnings were very bad before the bounce
The call
- Date said
- May 15, 2024
- Timeframe
- by 2026-2027
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $173.99
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$1,621.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker says 'pretty safe to say it has to hit that'