ELFBullunverifiable
“I think ELF would do great and I plan on owning it one day if the markets turn on it again, right? Phenomenal company.”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe host recently sold his ELF position after the stock ran from the $40s-$50s to around $110, believing the valuation opportunity (originally a favorable PEG ratio) has largely played out. He remains long-term positive on the company itself and would consider buying again if the valuation resets.
Key arguments
- ELF's PEG ratio expanded from an attractive ~1.2x-2x to about 2.5x, reducing the valuation case
- The stock's run from the $40s/$50s to $110 means Wall Street has largely priced in the opportunity he originally saw
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Correction may be uneven or may not occur at all
- Video includes explicit disclaimer: 'INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE'
- Portfolio performance cited (100% YTD) is not guaranteed and past performance does not indicate future results
- Prediction is conditional on market conditions and timing uncertainty
The call
- Date said
- Aug 28, 2026
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Vague, open-ended bullish sentiment with no price target, conditioned on the market 'turning on it again.'
Source
Tesla Stock Crash in September? | Tom Lee's New Warning.
Said on Aug 28, 2026Open on YouTube ↗