TSLABullpending
Michael TylerTarget Price
$600
“if Trump tacos and we get good news, could Tesla be a $600 stock by the end of this year? I think so, right?”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe YouTuber sees Tesla's biggest upside catalyst as Optimus/humanoid robotics scaling into 2026, believing Tesla is best positioned to win the US humanoid market. However, he says Tesla's near-term price action is heavily tied to macro factors — specifically whether the Iran war ends (a 'Trump taco') and whether the Fed continues hiking rates, with a bad macro outcome potentially dragging the stock back into the 200s.
Key arguments
- Tesla is the only company positioned to win the US humanoid robotics market as Chinese humanoids won't be sold in America
- Optimus production is expected to begin by end of year and scale in the following year, turning Tesla into a robotics company
- Tesla stock has been 'coiling' and tends to make big moves after such consolidation
- Risk-reward is skewed to the upside if the Iran war ends and the Fed hiking cycle is cancelled
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If the AI trade cracks amid a Fed hiking cycle, Tesla would get 'smoked' along with the broader market
- The proposed SpaceX merger is something he is 'not a huge fan of'
- Optimus timeline could slip, which would undercut the bull thesis
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Outcome depends on Trump's decision at UN meeting (timing uncertain - could be next week or a year from now)
- Geopolitical situation is unpredictable and could escalate rather than de-escalate
- Acknowledges significant political uncertainty with Democrats favored in upcoming elections
- Oil price and market reaction outcomes are speculative
The call
- Date said
- Sep 17, 2026
- Timeframe
- by the end of this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $358.08
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$221.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on a Trump 'taco' resolving the Iran war, but he affirms with 'I think so' and separately states the risk-reward is skewed to the upside.
Source
This Could Move Tesla Stock BIG.. (Trump Taco)
Said on Sep 17, 2026Open on YouTube ↗