TSLABearhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$500
“Before that, I think 500 is a very hard upside ceiling.”@ 15:02 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedTesla faces downside pressure in the near term due to lack of catalysts and running on 'hopium', but expects major upside once FSD reaches 10 billion miles inflection point around July. The stock is likely to trade in a sideways channel between $400-500 until the hard catalyst arrives.
Key arguments
- FSD inflection point approaching with 10 billion miles threshold (currently at 7.1 billion)
- Robo-taxi deployment expected between April-September, most likely July
- Once hard catalyst hits, stock can go to $1000 very quickly
- Elon's short-term predictions are more reliable than long-term ones
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock running on 'hopium' with limited near-term catalysts
- Downside pressure toward $400 if market drops
- Potential delays in FSD breakthrough timeline
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges inability to be 'totally sure' what happens next during volatile whiplashes
- Emphasizes need for risk management and de-risking during uncertain market conditions
- Notes that short put/call strategies require caution during high volatility
- Focuses on alpha relative to benchmarks rather than absolute returns
- Admits to underperformance versus Nasdaq in the measured week
The call
- Date said
- Jan 11, 2026
- Timeframe
- before hard catalyst
- Price at prediction
- $448.96
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $448.96
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Target ≤$500 reached on 2026-01-12. Price: $448.96. Return: 0.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$500 reached on 2026-01-12. Price: $448.96. Return: 0.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong language 'very hard ceiling' shows high conviction on resistance level