LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I think it'll all come down to their Q2 numbers mid next week and that might be that point to really push it significantly higher”@ 5:03 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid rose 7.27% today piggybacking Tesla's momentum, with no Lucid-specific news, and has broken above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages — a rare technical milestone. The short score of 95.64 indicates extreme squeeze potential, and shorts returned 2.86M shares on the day. Q2 numbers expected mid-next-week (Tuesday-Thursday) could serve as the catalyst to push Lucid above $3, potentially triggering a gamma squeeze via 15,000 contracts in open interest at that strike.
Key arguments
- Lucid broke above both 50-day and 100-day moving averages — historically precedes another 20-40% run
- Short score 95.64% with 28.7% of float shorted — consistent #1 most heavily shorted EV
- Shorts returned 2.86M shares today, validating the green day
- Q2 numbers coming Tuesday-Thursday; speaker expects ~2,100 delivered, ~1,900 produced
- 15,000 open interest at $3 strike — close above $3 triggers market maker gamma squeeze Monday
- Increasing social media visibility (football celebrities spotted in Lucid Air)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic at 77 is approaching overbought — first sign of weakness could bring pullback
- Volume was mostly algorithmic and Tesla-driven, not Lucid-specific
The call
- Date said
- Jul 4, 2024
- Deadline
- Jul 12, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $29.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $31.60
- Return
- +7.1%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-07-08. Price: $31.60. Return: +7.1%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-07-08. Price: $31.60. Return: +7.1%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.