LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$29
“for those of you that did tune in, I think it is fair to assume that we might be seeing that $29 range um in at least the foreseeable future”@ 5:49 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid spiked 3.07% late afternoon on news of Trump considering 'significant' US auto tariff relief, which the speaker views as potentially huge given Lucid guided 15%+ margin hit from tariffs. The stock broke above the 200-day moving average for the first time since July 29. The speaker sees the $29 range as achievable in the foreseeable future via Elliott Wave technicals. Two large dark pool buys of $1.2M and $1.1M occurred in the morning before the news broke.
Key arguments
- Trump considering 'significant' US auto tariff relief - massive if implemented given Lucid's 15%+ guided margin hit
- Lucid broke above 200-day moving average for first time since July 29; very bullish technical signal
- Dark pool: $1.2M and $1.1M buys in morning suggest someone knew something beforehand
- Short interest: shorts were doing nothing and packed up by mid-afternoon; DTC at 3.15 days
- Options: 58% bullish; consensus at $25-$25.50 for next week
- Elliott Wave technicals suggest $29 range achievable in foreseeable future
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- News came out Friday afternoon when big money already packed up - full impact not priced in yet
- Tariff relief is vague wording; 'significant' definition unclear
- Limited options activity on this news due to timing
The call
- Date said
- Oct 3, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.77
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $11.15
- Return
- -55.0%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $29. Price: $11.15.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $29. Price: $11.15.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.