TSLABullunverifiable
Randy Kirk“My number for the for this quarter is 530,000.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe hosts discuss strong current demand signals for Tesla, noting Model Y L and Model 3 rear-wheel-drive are sold out through year-end, which they attribute to improved FSD and high oil prices. They also speculate Tesla could push quarterly production higher by increasing shifts at existing factories rather than building new lines, while Elon's capex is being redirected toward autonomous Cybercab lines and AI infrastructure.
Key arguments
- Model Y L and Model 3 RWD are sold out through the end of the year, indicating max production demand
- People are reportedly walking into stores asking for FSD without knowing what the car looks like
- Increasing shifts at Berlin, Austin, and Shanghai could push output toward 600,000 vehicles per quarter without new lines
- Elon is prioritizing capex toward autonomous Cybercab production and AI-related satellite/data center projects
- The Boring Company plans a 200 mph Hyperloop tunnel between Austin and San Antonio, using proven 2017 demo technology
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla may be short on capex to build an entirely new production line
- It's unclear whether Berlin and Austin are currently running at full shifts
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges lack of technical expertise on the subject
- Discussion is speculative about future satellite capabilities
- Comparison to fiber optics noted as current superior alternative
- Technical specifications (kilowatts, terabits) are estimates or renderings, not confirmed final specs
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- this quarter
- Price at prediction
- $364.27
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Specific delivery figure stated directly as his own estimate, but it's a production/delivery count rather than a stock price target, and no strong certainty language is used.
Source
Stunning Details of SpaceX $Trillion Plan
Said on Sep 22, 2026Open on YouTube ↗