TSLANeutralmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$380
“I do not think if unless something bad happens it can drop much further other than 380.”@ 8:52 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe Model Y Juniper launch in China is a positive catalyst that will force a US and Europe launch soon to avoid Osborne demand destruction, supporting a long-term glide path toward $11-12K by 2030 driven by FSD v14, robotaxi pilot, Optimus deployment, and an affordable model.
Key arguments
- Model Y launch delivered roughly 3% isolated stock upside versus NASDAQ beta expectations.
- Osborne effect forces near-term global Model Y rollout.
- Catalysts in 2025 (FSD v14 by June, robotaxi pilot Q3-Q4, Optimus, affordable car) remain on track.
- Market pullback on strong economic data is healthy and not a thesis breaker.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Recent three-week drawdown from $484 to the $380s was painful for leveraged positions.
- Hawkish Fed repricing could continue to pressure the NASDAQ short term.
The call
- Date said
- Jan 10, 2025
- Timeframe
- near term
- Price at prediction
- $394.74
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $378.17
- Return
- -4.2%
- Notes
- Floor $380 breached on 2025-02-05. Price: $378.17 (-4.2% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Floor $380 breached on 2025-02-05. Price: $378.17 (-4.2% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as floor unless new negative news arrives; specific price level.