LCIDBullpending
StockAnalyticsAITarget Price
$24.47
“The stock is trading at $10.27 right now, but some discounted cash flow models show a $24.47 intrinsic value. That means it's like a 58% undervaluation.”@ 12:04 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLCID trades at $10.27 with DCF intrinsic values pointing to $11.75 to $24.47 based on the Atlas drive unit efficiency moat and Saudi PIF sovereign backstop, but with massive 2025 cash burn ($3.68B loss) and 33-35% short interest reflecting execution skepticism. Hosts conclude 'watchful waiting' and flag that the midsize platform launch in late 2026 is the make-or-break catalyst.
Key arguments
- Atlas drive unit delivers industry-leading 13.5 kWh/100km efficiency with up to 960km WLTP range
- Aston Martin licensing deal creates recurring high-margin revenue
- Tesla's discontinuation of Model S/X creates a luxury vacuum Lucid is filling
- Upcoming midsize platform (Cosmos, Earth) priced below $50,000
- 20,000-unit Uber robotaxi partnership operating in San Francisco
- Saudi PIF owns 60-64% with $9B cumulative and new $15B multi-year commitment
- $4.6B total liquidity, runway into first half of 2027
- DCF intrinsic value of $24.47 implies 58% undervaluation; conservative fair value $11.75
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 2025 GAAP net loss of $3.68B and $3.8B annual cash burn
- US tariffs wiped out 21 percentage points of gross margin in mid-2025
- 33-35% short interest and 25% of analysts rate sell
- 13 C-suite/VP executives have exited over 2.5 years
- CEO Peter Rawlinson stepped down Feb 2025, replaced by interim CEO Marc Winterhoff
- Geopolitical risk from Iran tensions impacting Saudi plant
- Aggressive BMW/Mercedes 800V platforms encroaching
The call
- Date said
- Mar 12, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $9.84
- Current price (live)
- $4.32$20.15 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker cites DCF output but ends with watchful waiting verdict rather than firm endorsement; framed as model intrinsic value rather than personal target.