TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$10,000
“By 2031, because this goes all the way into 2031, I think we are approach approaching $10,000 per share.”@ 2:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's massive stock option package for Tom Zhu demonstrates Elon's strategic thinking to lock down key execution talent for the company's robotics and robo-taxi revolution. The speaker believes Tesla will achieve massive value creation through Optimus robots and robo-taxis, with operational excellence being more important than just technology leadership.
Key arguments
- Tom Zhu is critical for Tesla's manufacturing execution, especially for scaling Optimus robots and robo-taxis
- The $5 billion potential payout locks down key talent and prevents competitors from poaching crucial personnel
- Tesla's future value will be driven over 95% by Optimus robots and robo-taxi services
- Operational excellence and execution are harder to replicate than technology, giving Tesla a sustainable advantage
- Competitors like Hyundai are serious threats but Tesla maintains technology and execution leadership
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Technology leads can be leaked through personnel moves to competitors
- Competitors will likely be only about a year behind Tesla rather than 10 years
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Projections based on author's discounted cash flow model
- Predictions contingent on Optimus and Robo Taxi trajectory materializing as expected
- Stock price targets ($6,000 by 2030, $10,000 by 2031) are speculative and dependent on multiple future developments
The call
- Date said
- Jan 16, 2026
- Timeframe
- 2031
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2031
- Price at prediction
- $437.50
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$9,621.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker expresses strong conviction with 'I think' but builds on previous prediction with logical progression