BTCBullunverifiable
Stock Moe“I believe the bottom will be in before the end of this year and this year is rolling up to an end very quickly.”
Thesis at the time
BullishStock Moe examined five prior death-cross events to argue the current weekly death cross is a weak bearish signal (40% historical hit rate for marking bottoms) compared to the 200-day reclaim pattern, which has a 3-for-3 record of marking major cycle lows. He believes crypto winter is likely thawing rather than definitively over, expecting a bottom before year-end.
Key arguments
- Weekly death cross has only a 40% historical hit rate for marking bottoms across 5 prior instances
- 200-day moving average reclaim after a long stretch below has a 3-for-3 record of marking major cycle lows
- This drawdown (~38% from highs) has been shallower than 2018 (84%) and 2022 (78%) cycles, suggesting a maturing/weaker bear
- SEC and CFTC are becoming more crypto-friendly which should help price action
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The death cross has failed as a bottom signal 60% of the time historically, with big declines following in 3 of 5 cases
- Volumes are weak, matching September 2023 levels
- Timing of the actual bottom is disputed among analysts
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Content is for entertainment only
- Creator acknowledges cherry-picking bias in death cross analysis
- Historical comparisons (2018, 2022) used but market conditions differ
- Timing prediction (October-November) is speculative
- Creator notes XRP will 'drop more' before runs, indicating volatility expectations
The call
- Date said
- Sep 1, 2026
- Timeframe
- before end of this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $78,849.02
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses certainty language ('I believe') with a defined deadline but no specific price target.