TSLABearmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$250
“if there's a 15% correction, Tesla drops 30%, right? Just based on beta. And so if that happens, then we are of course under 300. We are potentially 250.”@ 3:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is fundamentally undervalued and approaching a 12-month inflection point driven by robotaxi critical mass and the 5% free cash flow hurdle expected in April-May 2026, with a potential near-term correction serving as a perfect setup for a subsequent 100% rally.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi critical mass is building toward a forcing function in April-May 2026 based on the 5% free cash flow hurdle.
- Optimus is waiting on the side as additional upside.
- Technical breakout above 338 triangle consolidation supports bullish setup.
- Stock is approaching its 12-month inflection point for long-term investors.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Seasonal choppy time coming in September/October could produce a market correction.
- If market corrects 15%, Tesla drops 30% due to beta.
- There is a 50-55% probability of a meaningful market correction in the next 8-10 weeks.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 2, 2025
- Timeframe
- next 8-10 weeks (September-October 2025)
- Deadline
- Nov 1, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $329.36
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $456.56
- Return
- -38.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $250. Price: $456.56.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $250. Price: $456.56.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host gives 50-55% probability explicitly.