TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$480
“I do think we have a very high chance of hitting 480 in October.”@ 26:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla has a very high chance of hitting 480 in October driven by the affordable Model Y launch expanding TAM 3-8x and the combination of strong deliveries, with risk concentrated in the October 29 Fed meeting after earnings.
Key arguments
- Affordable Model Y launch in October expands TAM 3-8x.
- Institutional investors love the TAM expansion narrative.
- Tax credit expiration boosted Q3 deliveries enabling post-harvest launch.
- Speaker took short in-the-money puts at 460 strike October 17 expiry.
- Fed risk deferred until October 29 meeting, well after earnings.
- Seasonal correction risk largely priced out after Powell's September speech.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla drops 2x the market (beta 2) in corrections.
- Short-put strategy has huge downside risk if stock drops.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 1, 2025
- Timeframe
- October 2025
- Deadline
- Oct 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $459.46
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $456.56
- Return
- -0.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $480. Price: $456.56.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $480. Price: $456.56.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker uses high-conviction language for the October target.