LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“In my opinion, I do feel that it will get very close to that $3 range”@ 6:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid closed at $2.84, above the 200-day MA, which the speaker views as technically constructive heading into a macro-driven week. Moody's US downgrade over the weekend is unlikely to cause a major market correction (just a 29% S&P pullback historically from 2023 precedent) and should be a temporary blip. The speaker believes Lucid could approach $3 this week if tariff progress continues, with Elliott Wave technicals also targeting $3, but acknowledges overbought conditions and no Lucid-specific catalysts.
Key arguments
- Lucid closed above the 200-day MA at $2.80 — a significant technical milestone
- Moody's downgrade precedent (2023) caused only a 29% S&P dip, not a market crash
- Market makers need to cover 2.9M shares from 29K in-the-money 250 calls — potential price bump
- Elliott Wave technicals project $3+ target
- Fear & greed index in greed territory — risk appetite supports a move higher
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock is overbought; first sign of weakness could trigger pullback
- No Lucid-specific catalysts this week
The call
- Date said
- May 18, 2025
- Deadline
- May 23, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $26.80
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.60
- Return
- -4.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.60.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.60.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.