LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“maybe when it comes down to it like I said given the I did videos March and April it might be coming out September October something along those lines”@ 3:27 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishAn article (translated from Korean) reports Hyundai's Genesis sports car division is in discussions with Lucid for motor/technology cooperation. The speaker believes a deal could involve both cash (likely more than the $300M Aston Martin deal) and a production partnership. Lucid's South Korea hiring (now filled) and Ford's repeated testing of the Lucid Air suggest multiple OEM interest points. Based on the historical 6-8 month lag from rumor to announcement, a deal could come September-October 2024.
Key arguments
- Korean article reports Hyundai/Genesis in talks with Lucid for EV drivetrain technology cooperation
- Lucid hired significantly in South Korea — positions now filled, suggesting active project work
- Deal could be $600M+ given Hyundai produces far more vehicles than Aston Martin ($300M deal)
- Could involve production partnership where Hyundai manufactures Lucid vehicles in exchange for technology
- Historical 6-8 month lag from rumor to announcement (Aston Martin: Feb 2023 rumor → Aug 2023 announcement) implies September-October 2024 announcement window
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No confirmed information — all speculation based on translated article and circumstantial hiring data
- Market is closed today (Memorial Day) so no trading reaction yet
The call
- Date said
- May 27, 2024
- Deadline
- Oct 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $27.35
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.