Michael TylerTarget Price
$900
“I will say I think Tesla is a $900-plus stock by the end of this year.”@ 9:47 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's Q1 2026 earnings beat every estimate — EPS 41¢ vs 33¢, revenue $22.4B vs $21.4B, GAAP net income $1.45B vs $1.17B, FCF $1.44B. Optimus factory construction has officially started at Giga Texas (10M-robot/year capacity), Fremont conversion from Model S/X lines starts late July/August, and cyber cab production has begun. FSD subs grew 51% QoQ to 1.28M adding $17.8M/month. The $25B CAPEX raise is a positive signal — Tesla is spending on actual production lines, not just chips — and $45B cash amply supports going FCF-negative through the investment cycle.
Key arguments
- Q1 earnings beat all estimates: EPS 41¢ vs 33¢, revenue $22.4B vs $21.4B, net income $1.45B vs $1.17B, FCF $1.44B
- Optimus factory construction has officially started at Giga Texas; Fremont Model S/X lines convert to Optimus late July/August with 1M-robot/year initial capacity, scaling to 10M/year
- Cyber cab production has started at Giga Texas
- FSD subscriptions +51% QoQ to 1.28M, adding $17.8M/month; Cortex 2 training compute online; Dojo 3 custom silicon in development
- CAPEX raised to $25B (from $20B) is positive — Tesla is the dominant physical-AI company with no clear #2, investing in production lines not just chips
- $45B cash cushion amply supports the investment cycle
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- FCF will go negative for several quarters due to the CAPEX raise
- Markets are overextended and a pullback could drag Tesla alongside
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- FCF will go negative for several quarters due to raised CAPEX
- Markets are overextended and a broader pullback could drag Tesla alongside
The call
- Date said
- Apr 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- by the end of this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $386.42
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$521.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price + specific deadline, backed by an explicit post-earnings thesis. 'I will say I think' is certainty-leaning, and he acknowledges the target 'sounds crazy' from the current $384 but defends it with fundamentals.