LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$26.40
Said $2.64· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I think Lucid once they put out the gravity and they do signal hopefully in that PR that there is sufficient amount of demand and a lot of attention coming Associated to the gravity then I think big money might be kind of getting and rallying behind that propelling it into kind of maybe this pivot point or above so $264”@ 6:07 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid is piggybacking on a positive broader market, with shorts returning 1.5M shares and options showing some bullish consensus around $2.50–$3. Without a Gravity production confirmation or improved marketing, the stock risks remaining stuck in a trading range.
Key arguments
- Shorts returning 1.5M shares is a mild positive signal
- Options show consensus for price above $2.50 and some bets above $3 by January 2025
- Broader market optimism is lifting Lucid but company-specific catalyst (Gravity launch) is still needed
- Lucid's marketing has been poor; no Super Bowl advertising planned despite brand awareness problem
- Only ~5 weeks left in 2024 for Gravity PR before market punishes the stock
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Without Gravity confirmation, stock will just follow technicals and broader market
The call
- Date said
- Nov 22, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $21
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $27.30
- Return
- +30.0%
- Notes
- Target ≥$26.4 reached on 2024-12-16. Price: $27.30. Return: +30.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$26.4 reached on 2024-12-16. Price: $27.30. Return: +30.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.