TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$400
“I would reduce my price Target my short-term price Target from 400 to 200 if this goes south”@ 14:32 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishBoth shareholder votes are very likely to pass, unleashing significant short-term upside; long-term Tesla is the greatest stock market opportunity with a $5,000 mid-term price target driven by FSD, Optimus, and EV margin recovery.
Key arguments
- Model predicts 77% yes on compensation, 60% yes on Texas.
- Retail held 44% of shares and 90% voting yes per Elon tweet.
- Institutional investors in Texas vote follow board recommendation - higher passage rate.
- Yes votes unleash short-term upside via short covering and overhang removal.
- Long-term price target is $5,000 midterm driven by FSD/Optimus/EV.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If vote fails, stock could drop below $100 short-term and kill AI/Optimus thesis.
- Out-of-the-money call options would lose all value on a no vote.
The call
- Date said
- Jun 11, 2024
- Timeframe
- short-term
- Price at prediction
- $170.66
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $216.27
- Return
- +26.7%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 20% progress toward target $400. Price: $216.27.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 20% progress toward target $400. Price: $216.27.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as his short-term target, contingent on yes vote.