LCIDNeutralhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$12
“And then you could easily see around that $12 range um 12 to about 1240 being realistically hit.”
Thesis at the time
NeutralLucid closed above its 10-day moving average after a 7% gain last week, but remains below the 50, 100, and 200-day MAs. The speaker doesn't see the 50-day ($13.39) being touched this week and expects a flat or consolidating week. A new solid-state battery technology could be a potential future upside driver for range extension.
Key arguments
- Lucid closed above 10-day MA — some momentum building, but below 50/100/200-day MAs
- 7% gain last week shows some signs of bottoming
- Short interest at 35.57% of free float; DTC 5.79 days (overextended)
- CPI on Tuesday is the biggest market risk for the week
- New solid-state battery tech (700+ miles range) could be integrated by any EV manufacturer
- No Lucid-specific news or events planned for the week
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bull consensus targeting $12–12.50
- Solid state battery is not Lucid-exclusive — levels the playing field
The call
- Date said
- Jan 11, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $11.26
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $8.58
- Return
- -23.8%
- Notes
- Ceiling $12 held through deadline. Final price: $8.58 (-23.8% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Ceiling $12 held through deadline. Final price: $8.58 (-23.8% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.