LCIDNeutralhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$17
Said $1.70· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if it does fall below that 206 this is where you could get to kind of the mid ones so $170 $113 that is going to be the next strong supports”
Thesis at the time
BearishA new Canada-US tariff escalation triggered market fear, with Trump announcing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Lucid specifically stated in Q4 that tariffs would hit margins 12-15%, which is problematic given the company is already unprofitable. Shorts added 5.92M shares using nearly all available borrowable shares. The speaker warns of potential reverse stock split territory if the stock breaks below $1.
Key arguments
- Tariff escalation (50% on steel/aluminum) directly threatens Lucid margins by 12-15% per the company's own Q4 guidance
- Shorts added 5.92M shares, pushing utilization to near-100% – close to maximum short capacity
- Technical breakdown below $2.06 support, next level at $1.71
- AMP2 factory in Saudi Arabia reportedly still on schedule – a minor positive
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- CPI data coming the next day could provide a positive catalyst
- AMP2 Saudi factory construction proceeding on schedule
- Shorts may soon be forced to return shares due to near-maximum utilization
The call
- Date said
- Mar 11, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $20.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $22.30
- Return
- +6.7%
- Notes
- Floor $17 held through deadline. Final price: $22.30 (+6.7% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Floor $17 held through deadline. Final price: $22.30 (+6.7% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.