LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“With all the crazy catalysts that are coming out, it is fair to assume that we should be landing at least between this R1 and pivot tomorrow assuming GDP comes in line with expectations.”@ 5:41 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe NASDAQ short interest report revealed 24–25M more shorted shares than Ortex estimated between late April and mid-May, showing shorts aggressively suppressed Lucid's attempted breakout. The US federal court blocking liberation day tariffs and Nvidia's strong earnings set up a powerful positive catalyst. The speaker expects Lucid to trade between the R1 and pivot tomorrow if macro follows through.
Key arguments
- NASDAQ report reveals 25M more shorted shares than previously known during Lucid's recent rally
- Shorts at 377.31M shares (30.59% of float) — true figure was higher than Ortex showed
- US federal court blocking liberation day tariffs is a major market catalyst
- Nvidia earnings catalyst should push market higher, benefiting growth stocks
- Stock is wedge-bound between 100-day and 200-day moving averages
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Only 73M shares traded today — institutions not paying much attention currently
- A broader AI/tech rotation may be drawing attention away from Lucid
The call
- Date said
- May 28, 2025
- Deadline
- May 29, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $26.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.