UBERBearunverifiable
Randy Kirk“I don't think if they haven't reach I think if they haven't reached the top of their trajectory they've got very short amount of altitude to gain, but the plunge from that altitude to where they'll end up is going to be steep and nasty.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishLarry argues Uber is an overpriced, declining-quality product that has been propped up by surge pricing profits concentrated in a few peak hours, a model he believes autonomous fleets like Tesla's will undercut. He disagrees with Bill Ackman's bullish stake increase in Uber, predicting a steep decline once Uber's advantage erodes.
Key arguments
- Uber's profits are concentrated almost entirely in peak surge-pricing hours, not average fares
- Autonomous ride-hailing competitors like Tesla can surge supply using a massive owned/customer fleet, undercutting Uber's surge pricing model
- Uber's product has declined in quality while increasing in price, eroding its competitive position
- Waymo's fixed small fleet approach will also struggle, but Tesla's fleet model is a unique threat to Uber specifically
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Uber could survive and adapt by building its own Tesla-based fleet or pivoting its business model
- Uber's food delivery business could partially offset ride-hailing declines
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Cybercab rollout success depends on safe, accident-free deployment and meeting expectations
- Negative media coverage of any Tesla vehicle incidents could impact sentiment
- Semi-truck business unlikely to move the needle significantly before end of next year
- Optimus humanoid robot predictions are highly speculative and dependent on successful commercialization at $100,000+ price point
- Morgan Stanley's $840 bull case timeframe unclear (12-month vs long-term)
- Predictions contingent on next earnings call execution and guidance
The call
- Date said
- Sep 11, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $72.56
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong directional language ('steep and nasty' plunge) shows conviction, but hedged with 'I don't know if they've reached the absolute top' and no specific price or timeframe given.
Source
Respected Investor Just Posted This About Uber!!
Said on Sep 11, 2026Open on YouTube ↗