LCIDBearpending
Lucid CityTarget Price
$2.50
“bare case, I do feel that given especially the circumstances in 2026, we could see uh again, I know this is going to be polar spectrums, uh but if everything goes how it is, we could be seeing probably like maybe $2,2 to $3 realistically.”@ 11:50 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedSpeaker presents his 2026 predictions: bull case of $30 (post-reverse split equivalent) driven by midsize platform hype, Uber robotaxi deployment (mid-2026), and Nvidia partnership updates; bear case of $2–$3 if consumer weakness continues and deliveries disappoint. Two dilution rounds are expected in Q2 and Q4 2026 totaling $2–$3 billion. Speaker thinks Lucid will fall short of 18,000 target and land at 16,000–17,000. The Gravity GT and Touring are seen as unlikely breakout successes. Midsize at $50K launching end of 2026 is the main bull catalyst but revenue won't materialize until 2027.
Key arguments
- Bull case $30 driven by midsize platform hype, Uber deployment mid-2026, and Nvidia partnership updates
- Bear case $2-$3 if consumers continue struggling and deliveries disappoint, with potential second reverse split
- Two dilution rounds likely: ~$1-1.5B in Q2 2026 and ~$1B in Q4 2026
- 2026 target expected to be 25,000 vehicles; AMP1 + AMP2 together can do 300K capacity so no excuses
- Speaker expects Lucid to land at 16,000-17,000 for 2025, below 18,000 guide
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Midsize revenue won't materialize until 2027, so 2026 is purely hype-driven on that front
- Gravity GT seen as likely a flop like Air GT — too expensive, limited demand
The call
- Date said
- Nov 22, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $12.30
- Current price (live)
- $4.32$1.82 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending