MUBullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“the earnings will go up massively next year guaranteed”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishJoe views Micron's sell-off as irrational given surging DRAM/HBM demand that is expected to outstrip supply well into 2028, and believes the stock trades at an absurdly cheap valuation relative to its earnings power. He holds Micron as his biggest personal position and plans to keep it through upcoming Fed and earnings catalysts.
Key arguments
- New 2027 DRAM data shows HBM demand absorbing new supply, worsening industry sufficiency ratio
- Micron trades at roughly a 4x forward P/E, implying it could earn back nearly half its market cap in two years
- Chinese peer CXMT's $500B valuation implies Micron, with far more scale, is undervalued
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Cycle top concerns among traders who sell high-PE cyclicals expecting a peak
- Entire semiconductor sector (SOX) trading below 50-day moving averages amid panic
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges current brutal losses in semiconductor positions
- Notes personal trading is private and not through managed portfolios currently
- Recognizes extreme market volatility and crash conditions
- References Jim Cramer's contrarian indicator (dot-com bubble comparison) as a potential bottom signal
- Admits uncertainty about near-term price recovery despite bullish fundamentals
The call
- Date said
- Jul 28, 2026
- Timeframe
- next year
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses strong certainty language 'guaranteed' with a specific timeframe of next year.
Source
Why Tomorrow Is PIVOTAL for Tesla, Micron And The Market
Said on Jul 28, 2026Open on YouTube ↗