TSLABearunverifiable
Meet Kevin“Since Q2 deliveries were 443,000 units, uh achieving that number would look like a strong result, but at this point it doesn't look possible.”@ 1:04 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishTesla's Q2 sales are trending down compared to Q1 despite Elon's claims of a turnaround. The company is 50,000 units behind last year and would need to deliver 16,700 more units than last year in each remaining quarter to close the gap, which doesn't look possible at this point.
Key arguments
- Most tracking data shows Tesla Q2 sales trending down compared to Q1, contradicting Elon's turnaround claims
- Tesla is currently 50,000 units behind last year after Q1
- Would need 16,700 more units than last year in each remaining quarter to close the gap, which doesn't look achievable
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Still halfway through Q2 so don't need to worry about Tesla sales until July 1st
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Q2 results not finalized until July 1st
- Analysis relies on third-party forecasts (Troy Teslike)
- Elon's recent Bloomberg interview suggests management sees sales turning around
- Broad-based data sets show conflicting signals from official company statements
The call
- Date said
- May 21, 2025
- Timeframe
- Q2
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $343.82
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Based on current tracking data and year-over-year comparison, but acknowledges we're only halfway through the quarter