TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,000
“I have high conviction that the stock moves rapidly towards 1,000 because the market is going to realize autonomy is real.”@ 6:49 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe Trump-Elon feud is theatrical drama not genuine hostility, and paired with weak Q2 deliveries (~350K expected) it creates a buying opportunity ahead of the real 12-month forcing function that should catapult TSLA toward $1,000 when robotaxi crosses 2,000 deployed units.
Key arguments
- Trump's 'Doge the monster' comments show he's amused, not hostile.
- Trump feud 1.0 in June also proved to be fake drama.
- Q2 deliveries expected around 350K (vs 387-391K consensus) already priced in.
- Forcing function threshold is 2,000 deployed robotaxis crossing 5% of 2024 FCF.
- Dan Ives: 70% of institutional investors waiting for the signal.
- Historical parallel is Model 3 scaling of 2019-2020.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock currently driven by faith which makes it vulnerable to sentiment hits.
- Tesla will hit operational ceiling after initial fast scaling.
The call
- Date said
- Jul 1, 2025
- Timeframe
- next 12 months (90%+ confidence), could be as soon as 3 months
- Deadline
- Jul 1, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $300.71
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $417.26
- Return
- +38.8%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 17% progress toward target $1000. Price: $417.26.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 17% progress toward target $1000. Price: $417.26.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host explicitly says 90%+ confidence within 12 months.