LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$17
“In my personal opinion, I do feel like they will be cutting the guidance to between that most likely. I would assume 16 to 18.”@ 7:57 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
NeutralThe speaker provides a neutral-to-slightly-bearish earnings preview, expecting Lucid to guide within a lowered range of 16,000–18,000 units versus the previous 18,000–20,000. Retail questions are dismissed as softball setups. The speaker sees no major new partnerships being announced, but notes Nvidia will be highlighted. A 11.1% implied earnings move ($2) is expected.
Key arguments
- Speaker expects guidance cut to 16,000–18,000 from prior 18,000–20,000
- Wall Street focuses almost exclusively on Lucid's future guidance, not current metrics
- 12% implied earnings move — watch for options plays rather than common stock
- Lucid Q3 revenue estimate: $370.64M (85.28% YoY growth) — bar is low
- No major new partnerships expected to be announced
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If Lucid reiterates 18,000–20,000 guidance, market could take it positively
- Low expectations mean any positive surprise could trigger a V-shaped recovery
The call
- Date said
- Nov 2, 2025
- Deadline
- Nov 5, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $16.64
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $16.64
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Target ≤$17 reached on 2025-11-03. Price: $16.64. Return: 0.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$17 reached on 2025-11-03. Price: $16.64. Return: 0.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.