SPXBullunverifiable
Michael Tyler“I think tomorrow after the Fed meeting, stocks probably rally a little bit”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe host expects a brief relief rally around tomorrow's Fed meeting but believes the move will fail and stocks will sell off into Thursday and Friday amid triple witching and a broader Fed hiking cycle. He frames the market as trapped until either the Iran war ends, the AI trade cracks, or the economy breaks.
Key arguments
- A Fed rate hike is nearly certain (92% probability) and markets are pricing in three hikes total
- Triple witching on Friday is a record ~$10 trillion event, and a similar smaller event in June preceded an 8% S&P decline in five days
- Rising oil prices and 10-year yields near 5% are seen as key stress points for equities
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- "But hey, it could work the other way as well."
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Predictions are probabilistic (92% Fed hike probability cited)
- Acknowledges uncertainty about dovish vs hawkish hike outcome
- Notes that market could move either direction despite volatility expectations
- Historical precedent cited (June triple witching) may not repeat exactly
The call
- Date said
- Sep 15, 2026
- Timeframe
- tomorrow after the Fed meeting
- Price at prediction
- $7,619.98
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Hedge words 'I think' and 'probably' reduce conviction despite a directional call.