LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$14
“Looks like the bulls are feeling between 1350 and 14 is on the table.”@ 5:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedA weekend preview video covering the upcoming week. Positive: Lucid plans to expand to ~20 European cities by end-2026, primarily in Germany. Mark's fireside chat claim of 1,000+ vehicles/week in production makes the 18k target logically achievable. Options bulls see $13.50-14 for the week. Negative: Short interest at 33.15% (43.2M shares) is near all-time highs, technicals are poor (below 10-day moving average), and key data points (ADP, non-farm payroll, CPI) could create volatility.
Key arguments
- Euro expansion to 20 cities by end-2026 (12 in Germany) is a meaningful new catalyst
- Mark's claim of 1,000+ weekly production makes 18k target logically achievable
- Short interest at 33.15% (43.2M shares) heading toward all-time highs
- Options bulls see $13.50-14 range; this week's outlook is cautiously bullish
- Stochastic RSI at ~74 — not overbought, some room to move higher
- Strong 2026 guidance (35-40k) needed alongside 2025 target to demoralize shorts
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Q4 deliveries historically lag Q4 production at Lucid — market may discount target hit
- Heavy macro data week (CPI, non-farm payroll) could suppress broader market
The call
- Date said
- Dec 14, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 20, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $11.81
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $11.82
- Return
- +0.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $14. Price: $11.82.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $14. Price: $11.82.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.