LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$16.30
“if we do get that cut, we could easily see a nice push higher to at least I'd say that 1630 and that's just based on the market position”@ 8:57 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishToday's recovery reflects institutions viewing yesterday's Black Friday-data selloff as unjustified. The first Gravity registered in Norway is a positive expansion signal for Europe, the region with 97.6% EV penetration. Speaker is cautiously optimistic for the week if rate cut expectations hold, seeing a potential move to $16.30 if data justifies a cut. Options bulls are targeting $14 by end of week.
Key arguments
- First Lucid Gravity registered in Norway where 97.6% of cars sold are electric — prime market for expansion
- Production flyover suggests they're on track to hit 18,000 delivery target
- If December rate cut expectations hold, algorithmic trading could push LCID to 50-day moving average
- Options bulls targeting $14 by end of week
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- An article claiming zero Lucid Air sedans sold in November in certain markets is seen as FUD but raises demand questions
- If rate cut data disappoints, LCID could be dragged down
The call
- Date said
- Dec 2, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $12.88
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $10.03
- Return
- -22.1%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $16.3. Price: $10.03.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $16.3. Price: $10.03.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.