LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$45
Said $4.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you do see a lot more optimism so you see it kind of surging back to that 450 potentially”@ 4:35 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker views shorts returning 680K shares on a green day as a validating signal that the rally is real and shorts are beginning to admit defeat. With 60% bullish options flow, GDP and jobless claims both beating expectations, and PCE data expected to confirm rate cuts tomorrow, the speaker draws an analogy to Neo's 200-day MA breakout and believes Lucid needs just one more catalyst to break above the 50-day MA for a significant run.
Key arguments
- Shorts returning 680K shares - first time in a while, validating the green day
- 60% of options flow bullish with consensus targeting $4.50 upside
- GDP and initial jobless claims beat expectations, supporting rate-cut narrative
- Fear/greed index moving toward extreme greed, increasing risk appetite
- Neo analogy: similar setup before a major breakout from moving average resistance
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 50bp cut probability dropped slightly to 49% due to good economic data
- Volume came from algos not fundamental buyers
The call
- Date said
- Sep 26, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $35.40
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $33
- Return
- -6.8%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $45. Price: $33.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $45. Price: $33.00.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.