LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$24.60
Said $2.46· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“that might be shorts bigger plan to really break lucid on a technical standpoint... just watch for that 246”@ 6:23 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishShorts are abnormally increasing position (+2.48M shares) going into a long weekend, a clear sign they are pursuing a specific technical objective — breaking Lucid below the 100-day MA. The speaker notes 57% of options activity is bearish, with large 250 puts purchased for June 20, and flags that a 30% historical drawdown occurs whenever Lucid breaks below its 50-day MA. Management execution delays on promised marketing campaigns and ambassadors are also giving shorts cover.
Key arguments
- Shorts increased 2.48M shares on pre-holiday Friday — abnormal and strategic
- 57% of options activity is bearish; large 250 puts bought for June 20 (~28 days out)
- Lucid broke below the 100-day MA today; 50-day at $2.46 is now next key support
- Historical pattern: breaking below 50-day MA causes ~30% decline
- Lucid has delayed on promised marketing campaigns, gravity test drives, and ambassador announcement
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- All secondary market transactions so far are buys
- Bulls still expect $3 range by next week
The call
- Date said
- May 23, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25.60
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $24.10
- Return
- +5.9%
- Notes
- Target ≤$24.6 reached on 2025-05-29. Price: $24.10. Return: +5.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$24.6 reached on 2025-05-29. Price: $24.10. Return: +5.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.