TSLABearunverifiable
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium“shares could easily fall another 90% from here if operations continue to deteriorate”@ 4:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishTesla's operations are deteriorating with sales falling over 50% in certain countries, margins at industry average despite subsidies, and the company trading at unsustainable multiples compared to legacy automakers. The YouTuber believes Tesla could easily fall another 90% if operations continue to deteriorate.
Key arguments
- Tesla's margins are now about industry average, not superior as claimed
- Tesla is growing more slowly than GM and Ford, with auto business down 8% last quarter
- Trading at 8.2x sales vs GM at 0.3x and Ford at 0.2x - could fall 90% and still be overvalued
- High fixed costs from manufacturing plants make company vulnerable to losses if sales drop
- Expected products like FSD and Optimus face significant competition and uncertain timelines
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Analysis based on early 2025 sales data that may not be representative of full-year trends
- Assumes continued operational deterioration and margin compression
- Dependent on potential elimination of $7,500 EV tax credit by Trump Administration
- Excludes potential positive catalysts or operational improvements
- Valuation comparison assumes legacy automaker multiples remain constant
The call
- Date said
- Mar 13, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $240.68
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong conviction with 'easily' language and conditional based on continuing operational trends