Why I Am LOADING UP on Tesla Stock NOW
Overall Thesis
Tesla bottomed at 222 after a historic 9-week downtrend and is now trading at a 40% discount to the model-derived fair value of 400-ish per share. Brand damage and sales crash narratives are fake news - early Model Y relaunch data shows sales going through the roof. With robotaxi June launch, Russia peace dividend, Trump tariff clarity, and Optimus year-end launch all converging, the stock should meaningfully exceed the 640 fair value by year-end absent a robotaxi hiccup.
Narratives
Tesla at 249 is a 40% discount to the model-derived current fair value of around 400, bottomed at 222, and is set up with multiple catalysts (Model Y relaunch sales boom, robotaxi June launch, Russia peace, Optimus year-end) that should push the stock above the 640 end-of-year fair value.
Key Arguments
- Current fair value per DCF model is roughly 400 - stock trading at 40% discount
- End of 2025 fair value target is 640
- Tesla bottomed at 222 with 9-week downtrend ending - historic longest downtrend
- Q1 sales weakness was due to Model Y production line changeover, already priced in
- Early Model Y relaunch sales data in China, US, Germany, Europe shows dramatic increases
- Brand damage narrative is fake news - 70% of Americans support Doge, 20% of Germans are AfD
- Russia peace in next 2 months could add 1.5-2% US GDP growth
- Retail dollars are flooding in and Tesla retail is more sophisticated than institutional
- Trump tariff strategy will lead to lower tariffs globally via reciprocity