$9.7 Trillion Triple Witching Event, Could Crash Tesla Stock.
Overall Thesis
A record $9.7 trillion triple witching options expiration combined with upcoming inflation data and geopolitical tensions could trigger a stock market crash, with Tesla stock particularly vulnerable to a pullback.
Narratives
The YouTuber believes Tesla is not immune to a broader market correction driven by a Fed rate hike, triple witching options expiration, and Middle East conflict, and expects short-term downside before a strong long-term move higher. He plans to buy the dip aggressively at lower price levels while maintaining a long-term bullish target for the stock.
Key Arguments
- Tesla will fall alongside the broader market if we get a rate hike and market sell-off, estimated at 30% given its beta.
- He plans to scale into buying Tesla aggressively around $300, $270, and $250 if the stock falls.
- Once the Iran war ends and Fed uncertainty clears, he expects Tesla to resume a strong uptrend into 2027.
Predictions (1)
The YouTuber discusses rising oil prices (from about $75 to $85 a barrel) as a contributor to inflation pressures that could force a Fed rate hike, but does not state a clear directional prediction on the USO fund itself.
Key Arguments
- Oil rising from $75 to $85 a barrel is contributing to inflation and pressuring the Fed toward a rate hike.
- Continued oil price increases are part of a feedback loop with Treasury bond troubles and geopolitical conflict.
Hedges & Caveats
- Creator explicitly states 'INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE'
- Predictions are contingent on multiple uncertain factors (CPI data, Fed decision, geopolitical escalation)
- Historical correlation between triple witching events and crashes is referenced but not guaranteed
- Creator mentions preparing to 'buy the dip' suggesting uncertainty about timing and magnitude of any decline