SpaceX’s Next Phase Could Be MUCH Bigger
Overall Thesis
SpaceX and Tesla are executing on long-delayed projects simultaneously, with Morgan Stanley modeling SpaceX reaching $3.5 trillion in revenue by 2040 while Elon believes this could happen by 2033, supported by strategic moves in power generation, military contracts, and satellite internet.
Narratives
The hosts frame Tesla as part of a broader Musk-ecosystem investment thesis, citing institutional accumulation, dominant EV market share, and emerging businesses like Semi and robotaxi as underappreciated growth drivers. They argue Tesla's high valuation multiple is justified by real, scalable businesses behind flashy product announcements.
Key Arguments
- Tesla has dominant EV market share in the US, even if total EV market size remains constrained.
- The Semi truck business could shift freight from rail to semi trucks, representing a real scalable business.
- Robotaxi is being built to scale profitably rather than cap out at a couple thousand vehicles.
- Institutional shareholders are accumulating Tesla shares as markets price in future milestones ahead of time.
- Tesla's casting and manufacturing expertise (shared with SpaceX) gives it capabilities not found in traditional assembly factories.
Predictions (1)
The hosts note that Cathie Wood's ARK Invest holds over a billion dollars combined in Tesla and SpaceX shares and continues to buy despite public skepticism about her fund's performance. They frame this as ARK playing a long-term game rather than making a specific call on ARKK's own share price.
Key Arguments
- ARK Invest reportedly holds over $1 billion combined in Tesla and SpaceX shares.
- Cathie Wood keeps buying despite perceptions that ARK 'isn't doing well.'
- This is characterized as ARK playing a long-term investment game tied to Musk-ecosystem convergence.
Hedges & Caveats
- Morgan Stanley's $3.5 trillion revenue model is a projection, not a guarantee
- Elon's 2033 timeline is described as 'his best guess'
- Discussion acknowledges Tesla's 300+ PE ratio already prices in future growth
- Historical pattern of SpaceX and Tesla projects being delayed before launch
- Starshield expansion and Starlink licensing are early-stage developments