Tesla Finally Doing What Stockholders Have Begged For
Overall Thesis
Tesla has achieved 10 million vehicle production milestone and is positioned for accelerated growth through FSD and compute capabilities, representing a major accomplishment for shareholders.
Narratives
The hosts celebrate Tesla crossing 10 million vehicles produced and argue that FSD has reached a cultural 'tipping point' based on a surge of viral social media videos showcasing the technology. They also track the Austin robotaxi fleet's steady expansion as evidence the network is scaling, while noting a supplier lawsuit and slow-moving federal AV regulation as near-term friction points.
Key Arguments
- Tesla hit 10 million vehicles produced worldwide, a milestone the host had predicted almost to the exact time.
- FSD is going viral across social media (Instagram/TikTok), which the host calls evidence of a Malcolm Gladwell-style 'tipping point' in public perception.
- The Austin robotaxi fleet has grown from 175 to 181 registered vehicles in one day, with 83 vehicles spotted and 69 running unsupervised.
- Tesla's official FSD safety showcase highlights numerous scenarios (running red lights, yielding to cyclists, emergency vehicles) where the car reportedly outperforms human drivers.
Predictions (1)
The hosts relay Samsung's Q2 earnings commentary describing an intensifying memory chip shortage expected to persist through 2027-2028, driven by surging AI token demand, and note this bodes well for memory suppliers like Micron and SK Hynix. However, they also point out Micron's stock chart has been extremely volatile over the past 10 days with several unfilled chart gaps.
Key Arguments
- Samsung stated a significant increase in industry memory supply before 2028 is unlikely, with 2027 shortages expected to be even more severe than 2026.
- AI infrastructure customers are increasingly requesting multi-year supply agreements, suggesting structurally tighter memory markets.
- Micron's 10-day stock chart round-tripped from about $740 to just over $1,000 and back, described as 'a bit of a wild ride.'
Hedges & Caveats
- Host explicitly states 'I'm not one to make predictions'
- Past prediction about 10 million milestone (July 2nd post) is retrospective, not a new forward prediction
- Host acknowledges guessing involved in previous timing prediction
- Discussion of FSD acceleration is speculative commentary rather than a specific directional call
- Economic challenges in auto industry acknowledged as headwinds