Tesla Stock is Going to Move Big This Week.. (My Thoughts)
Overall Thesis
AI stocks are predicted to crash significantly this week due to major AI companies announcing plans to slow AI development, potentially triggering a Black Monday-like event, while the Fed is unlikely to raise rates on Wednesday.
Narratives
The host expects Tesla to see near-term volatility alongside the broader tech/AI selloff but believes it will emerge as a long-term winner, driven by humanoids, robotics, full self-driving, and robotaxi progress. He maintains a $1,000 price target for Tesla next year and views any price below $300 as a strong buying opportunity.
Key Arguments
- Nothing can slow Tesla's advancements in humanoids, robotics, full self-driving, and robotaxi.
- Tesla may sell off short-term with the broader tech/AI complex but will be identified as a winner over the coming weeks and months.
- A delay in Optimus or the robotaxi rollout would be the main catalyst that could change his thousand-dollar price target.
Predictions (1)
The host holds a very small bearish position in Nvidia via puts, reflecting caution around the AI hardware trade slowing down, though he emphasizes it is a minimal part of his portfolio.
Key Arguments
- He believes the AI hardware trade is cooling off and personally avoids owning hardware stocks.
- His Nvidia puts represent less than one-tenth of one percent of his portfolio, showing this is a minor tactical position rather than a major conviction.
Predictions (1)
The host expects near-term turbulence from an AI-driven selloff and a record triple witching options expiration, but remains bullish on the broader market for 2027 as the AI hardware trade cools without derailing overall growth.
Key Arguments
- A record $9.6 trillion triple witching event on Friday could add volatility similar to the 8% five-day S&P decline seen after June's prior record.
- He does not believe the Fed will hike rates given the AI-driven market turmoil, which removes a key inflation driver.
- He remains 'very bullish for 2027' even if the AI hardware trade slows, viewing any slowdown as preventing a bigger bubble and recession later.
Predictions (1)
The host is bullish on Rubrik as a cyber resilience leader positioned to benefit from rising demand for cybersecurity as AI-driven threats and agent swarms become bigger concerns.
Key Arguments
- Rubrik continuously backs up company operations and can isolate/remove malicious files in real time, protecting against ransomware and AI-driven cyberattacks.
- Companies don't have enough cyber resilience tools, and Rubrik is positioned to capture rising demand as this need grows.
- The broadening trade out of AI hardware into non-hardware sectors like cybersecurity should benefit Rubrik.
Hedges & Caveats
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE
- Speculation about unknown information beyond public statements
- Acknowledges uncertainty about exact market outcomes
- Predictions contingent on 'assuming nothing else gets changes all too much'
- No insider information claimed