are we f**k'd
Overall Thesis
Market analysis covering AI developments (OpenAI, Anthropic), robotics (Figure), and technical trading opportunities with bullish positioning on QQQ bounces and specific sector calls.
Narratives
Kevin recaps a week of largely accurate short-term trading calls on QQQ around key support levels near $700-$715, and reiterates an overall bullish medium-term stance on the market despite acknowledging two recession risk factors. He argues retail fear and AI infrastructure spending currently support higher prices.
Key Arguments
- Alpha report correctly called $700 as hard support and bounced buys off that level multiple times during the week
- Retail fear and de-risking sentiment historically precedes rallies ('retail fear makes me bullish')
- Medium-term bullish alignment despite short-term choppiness around triple witching
Predictions (1)
Kevin argues Nvidia is the dominant beneficiary of the AI and robotics buildout, controlling the training chips (Reuben/Vera Rubin GPUs), edge chips (Thor/Orin), networking (ConnectX/Bluefield), and software stack (CUDA, Omniverse, ROS2) across both AI and humanoid robotics. He believes Nvidia is undervalued given this near-total vertical dominance.
Key Arguments
- Nvidia chips (Reuben) are used to train humanoid robots like Figure's, and its Thor/Orin chips run on-device robot inference
- Nvidia's CUDA, Omniverse, and ROS2 ecosystem gives it software lock-in across the robotics stack
- New model compression trends increase, not decrease, value of both new and older Nvidia chips
- Nvidia is a top pick in his robotics stock research with a 2x PEG-based screen
Kevin set a short-term price target for Meta of $700, noting it closed at $666 and remaining optimistic it would reach that level soon. He also separately notes Meta's ad business fully funds its AI chip capex, reducing downside risk even without immediate AI ROI.
Key Arguments
- Meta's advertising revenue pays for its AI chip spending, so the capex is 'covered' regardless of AI ROI
- Short-term technical target of $700 following a bounce
Predictions (1)
Kevin expresses bullishness on Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett's strategy, citing Berkshire's all-cash acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison as evidence Buffett shares his thesis that real estate will benefit long-term from eventual rate declines.
Key Arguments
- Berkshire's acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison signals confidence in the long-term real estate/homebuilding thesis
- Buffett/Berkshire positioning aligns with Kevin's own bullish real estate view
Predictions (1)
Kevin recounts a past bearish call on Opendoor, noting the stock fell from the $6-$10 range down to about $2.50 after he warned members not to buy it, calling it a 'bag holder' stock.
Key Arguments
- Prior call warning members away from Opendoor as a 'bag holder' played out as the stock declined sharply
Kevin describes Tesla as a 'diabolical vertical integration competitor' building its own chips, simulators, and robotics stack to rival Nvidia, but notes Tesla killed its Dojo chip program and still relies on Nvidia for training, making its independence uncertain.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is building its own AI5/AI6 chips, simulators, and circuit boards to vertically integrate its robotics and AI stack
- Despite this effort, Tesla killed Dojo and still depends on Nvidia hardware for training
Hedges & Caveats
- Presenter acknowledges past misses in alpha report (e.g., Tuesday calls)
- Mixed sentiment on certain days due to Fed uncertainty
- Specific warning against Open Door as potential 'bag holder'
- Content includes promotional material for paid membership service
- Past performance claims ('we crushed it') do not guarantee future results