Tesla Stock is About to MOVE BIG Next Week..
Overall Thesis
Tesla stock and broader markets face significant volatility next week due to triple witching and potential Iran conflict resolution at the UN General Assembly, with outcomes ranging from major crashes to sharp rallies depending on geopolitical developments.
Narratives
The speaker believes Wall Street is underestimating Tesla's long-term growth, particularly once Optimus scales, but is cautious about buying more shares right now because Tesla's near-term price action is tied to broader market and geopolitical risk (the Iran war) rather than company fundamentals. He is holding off on deploying significant capital until there is more clarity on the macro picture.
Key Arguments
- Wall Street's 20% revenue growth estimates for Tesla are too low; Optimus could drive ~100% revenue growth in a few years
- Tesla has been trending higher and holding support at its 20-day moving average, outperforming other sectors recently
- Tesla is less directly affected by oil price and geopolitical tension than other sectors
The speaker discusses oil prices being above $100 a barrel as a key macro factor keeping inflation elevated and fueling Fed rate hikes, tying oil's trajectory directly to the outcome of the Iran conflict. He does not give a specific price prediction for oil or USO, treating it purely as a macro input rather than a trading position.
Key Arguments
- Oil above $100 a barrel is preventing inflation from coming down to the Fed's 2% target
- Diesel shortages are creating economic risk tied to the ongoing Iran conflict
- If the Iran war ends, oil-driven inflation pressure could ease, potentially slowing the Fed's hiking cycle
Hedges & Caveats
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Acknowledges uncertainty about geopolitical outcomes
- States 'we have no idea what is going to happen'
- Portfolio down $4,500 on the day discussed
- Mentions hedging portfolio in trading community
- Describes AI trade as 'frothy'
- Notes multiple rate hikes expected through April 2027