Tesla Stock is DROPPING - I do THIS now
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%
Overall Thesis
Tesla is down 50% from December highs to 236, trading at a 43% discount to the model-derived March fair value of 418 and end-2025 fair value of 657. With fear & greed index at 16, the right action is to wait - don't buy into a falling knife but don't sell at extreme fear. The June robotaxi launch remains the critical catalyst for a potential run to 650 by August. 2030 discounted fair value has been adjusted to 12,700.
Narratives
TSLATesla
Strongly BullishTesla at 236 is trading at a 43% discount to model fair value with end-2025 target of 657 and 2030 target of 12,700 under conservative robotaxi and Optimus assumptions, making this a generational entry point but with recommendation to wait for sentiment shift rather than catch a falling knife.
Key Arguments
- Fair value end-2025 is 657 (up from 366 last December)
- 2030 target adjusted to 12,700 per share
- Current 236 stock = 43% discount to fair value of 418
- Conservative model inputs: 50 robotaxis 2025, 10k 2026, 50k 2027, 200k 2028; Optimus 110k cumulative by 2027
- Robotaxi June launch remains on track based on all indicators
- Potential 650 by August if robotaxi launches successfully
- Fear & greed at 16 - not a selling point, but also don't catch falling knife
- Presenter moved 30% of core stock position into Dec 2026 900-strike LEAPS two weeks ago
- Trump willingness to tolerate market chaos implies advisors see no fundamental risk
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —